Monday, December 10, 2018

Autonomous Cars - Are They Realistic?

We are getting waaaay out in front of our skis. There is a LOT to discuss about autonomous cars:

First point is that by far the best autonomous cars are ELECTRIC. So, if we see a lot of autonomous cars - most of the cars on the road will be electric.

Second point is that before we see Level 5 (FULL autonomous) cars, we will see MOST cars with Level 2, or Level 3 STANDARD.

Third point: autonomous cars need to be "learning" - and therefore they have to A) "talk" to each other, and B) they need to share ONE DATABASE.

Fourth point: we can barely get this to work on LIMITED ACCESS highways, that have bright painted lines. Making the jump to full autonomy on ALL KINDS of roads / highways, in ALL conditions - is a QUANTUM increase in complexity.

To illustrate this fourth point: take a gaming computer - these are right at the cutting edge of performance - and ALL it has to do is render a PRE-MADE 3D MODEL. An autonomous car has to take the inputs from 8-12+ different sensors - and it has to "build" a moving 3D model, AND it has to do all the vectors of their motion - a FOURTH DIMENSION - in the blink of an eye.


AND it has to "decide" the best route, AND the second best route, AND MAYBE even the third best option - CONSTANTLY.

Fifth point - it probably needs to have a FULLY REDUNDANT set of backup hardware - AND / OR it needs a really robust "algorithm".


Seventh point: in what world will our government have a consistent and effect set of regulations? The insurance companies have to be onboard, too.


To sum up - we first will have to have a majority of cars on the road to be electric, and we will have to have a majority of cars / vehicles to have automatic safety function, that backup the driver - as STANDARD equipment.

Then, and only then - we will need a shared open source database of all / most cars, so that each vehicle gets as much advantage as possible - of driving in any / all conditions as close to perfect as possible.

The goal is - obviously - much better vehicle safety. Lets be realistic about how / when this can happen.

Predetermined routes is an important step. And the driver's role is wholly transformed - they go from being 100% responsible, to being a passenger.

And how do we enter the desired route? Have you gotten 100% accurate GPS routes, all the time?

People WILL do these things - and more - in their moving cars:



Have sex

Watch a movie

Do work

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